涨价成掘金信号！公募选股看好“确定性+弹性”

Core Viewpoint - The concept of price increases based on supply and demand has become a key logic for fund managers to outperform the market and identify potential high-growth stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Price Increase as a Signal for Investment - Price increases are viewed by fund managers as a sign of corporate expansion and competitive strength, often leading to excess returns [2]. - The price of Moutai liquor has risen from 499 RMB to approximately 1169 RMB from January 2011 to November 2023, significantly benefiting funds heavily invested in it [2]. - Companies like Bilibili, Meitu, and Tencent Music have also seen positive investment cycles due to membership price increases, with Meitu's net profit reaching 467 million RMB in the first half of the year, a 71.3% year-on-year increase [2]. Group 2: Risks of Price Decrease - The decline in prices can indicate either an industry recession or a competitive "elimination round," posing risks for non-leading companies [3]. - A notable example is the significant losses incurred by funds that invested heavily in Nayuki Tea during a price decline cycle, leading to its market value dropping to less than 2 billion HKD [3]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Market Trends - In a climate of rising risk aversion, companies with price increase expectations have become attractive investment targets [4]. - Recent data shows that the top-performing funds are concentrated in resource and new energy themes, with some funds achieving returns of up to 31% in a month due to price increases in related commodities [4]. Group 4: Sensitivity to Price Increase Logic - There has been a significant influx of funds into chemical ETFs, reflecting investor sensitivity to price increase logic, despite some ETFs experiencing net value losses earlier in the year [5]. - The asset size of the Jianxin Chemical ETF grew from 604 million RMB to 1.099 billion RMB from June to September 2023, indicating strong investor interest [5]. Group 5: Long-term Investment Strategies - Fund managers are focusing on sectors with price increase potential, such as non-ferrous metals, which are expected to see upward price trends due to supply constraints [6]. - The technology sector is also benefiting from price increases, with major memory suppliers planning to raise prices by up to 30% to meet the growing demand driven by AI [6]. Group 6: Caution in Competitive Industries - Some fund managers advocate for caution in industries experiencing price competition, such as the AI large model sector, where price reductions have been announced [7].