存储器价格攀升，2026年全球智能手机及笔电生产出货预期下调

Core Viewpoint - The global market is expected to face uncertainties in 2026, with inflation impacting consumer market performance and a strong upward cycle in memory prices leading to increased overall costs and potential price hikes for end products, which may further affect consumer demand [2]. Group 1: Smartphone Market - TrendForce has revised down its production shipment forecasts for global smartphones in 2026 from a growth of 0.1% to a decline of 2% due to rising memory costs [2]. - The price increase in DRAM is expected to raise the BOM cost of smartphones by approximately 8-10% in 2025, with overall BOM costs projected to increase by 5-7% in the following year [3]. - Smaller smartphone brands may struggle to secure resources due to tight memory supply, potentially leading to a market reshuffle favoring larger players [4]. Group 2: Laptop Market - The laptop market is anticipated to face dual pressures of cost and demand in 2026, with memory components expected to account for over 20% of the BOM cost due to significant price increases [5]. - If brands pass on costs to consumers, laptop prices may rise by 5-15%, which could dampen demand, particularly in the low-end market where price sensitivity is high [5]. - The mid-range market may see a slowdown in replacement cycles as both corporate and household users extend the lifespan of their devices [5]. Group 3: Monitor Market - The monitor market, which typically uses smaller capacity memory, is less directly impacted by price increases; however, it may suffer indirectly if PC retail prices rise significantly, leading to a forecasted decline in annual shipments from a slight increase of 0.1% to a decrease of 0.4% [6]. Group 4: BOM Cost Analysis - For different market segments, the BOM cost increase from Q1 2025 to Q3 2026 is projected at 12% for high-end and mid-range products, and 10% for low-end products, with DRAM and SSD components making up 23%, 21%, and 20% of the BOM cost respectively [8].