【商用车】2025年10月轻型商用车市场预测研究报告

Industry Insights - The launch of the Remote Star Intelligence F3E marks a significant entry into the smart wide-body long-range market, priced at 89,900 yuan, designed for China's urban distribution logistics needs with a focus on smart technology, efficient operations, and an open architecture [3][7] - Changan Automobile introduced two new models: the Star Tower, a flagship small truck emphasizing user experience with five key advantages, and the Cross Star, a versatile light passenger vehicle designed for urban scenarios [7] Product Analysis - The penetration rate of new energy in VAN vehicles has rapidly increased, reaching 46.8% in the first nine months of 2025, with sales of 259,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth [10][12] - Traditional energy sources for VAN vehicles show mixed results, with gasoline sales increasing by 7.1% to 169,000 units, while diesel and natural gas sales declined by 6.9% and 18.4%, respectively [12] - The market for VAN vehicles is expected to recover with a projected sales increase of 10.6% in 2024, reaching 683,000 units, driven by the growth of new energy vehicles [14] Sales Forecast - The overall market for light commercial vehicles is projected to grow steadily, with an estimated total sales of 2.826 million units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [26] - The new energy penetration rate for VAN vehicles is expected to reach 50% in 2025, with specific projections for large, medium, and small VANs at 18%, 96%, and 21.5%, respectively [24] - Economic factors such as stable domestic demand and investment growth are expected to support the light commercial vehicle market, despite challenges from the real estate sector and international economic uncertainties [26]