美债将录得2020年来最佳表现？本轮涨势仍面临这些风险

Core Viewpoint - Recent optimism among U.S. Treasury traders regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has overshadowed concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit, leading to expectations that U.S. Treasuries may achieve their best annual performance since 2020 [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has returned approximately 6.7% year-to-date, potentially marking its best annual return since 2020 [5]. - In 2023, the index's return was 5.5%, with a stagnation expected in 2024, contrasting with previous years where short-term U.S. Treasuries were preferred for risk diversification [6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent FOMC meeting saw a division among officials regarding interest rate cuts, with some advocating for a 50 basis point cut, while others opposed any cuts [7]. - Despite a weak employment trend, the likelihood of a rate cut in December remains high, suggesting that long-term interest rates may not sustain upward momentum [7]. Group 3: Fiscal Concerns - The U.S. government's budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is projected at $1.8 trillion, unchanged from 2024, which could exert pressure on the bond market [9]. - The futures market indicates a 46% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut, down from 67% a week prior, highlighting uncertainty around future monetary policy [9]. Group 4: Corporate Bond Market Risks - Analysts express concerns that the rising U.S. credit market may mask risks associated with historically high valuations of corporate bonds, leading to insufficient risk premiums for investors [10]. - The spread between investment-grade U.S. corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries narrowed to 0.72 percentage points in September, the lowest since the late 1990s, indicating potential over-speculation in the market [10].