“DeepSeek冲击”后最大抛压！美国AI巨头举债豪赌算力，华尔街买账吗

Core Viewpoint - The recent sell-off in AI stocks, described as the largest momentum pullback since the "DeepSeek shock," is attributed to concerns over high spending and low returns in AI, alongside other factors such as SoftBank's sale of Nvidia shares and a decreased probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [3][4]. Group 1: AI Stock Market Dynamics - AI stocks faced significant pressure, with companies like Oracle, CoreWeave, Nebius, and Palantir experiencing declines of 4% to 16% [3]. - Major tech companies, including Meta, Alphabet, and Oracle, have initiated substantial bond issuance, marking the arrival of the AI debt market, raising questions about the long-term returns on their massive capital expenditures [3][4]. Group 2: Debt Market Trends - The competition among AI companies resembles a "moon landing race," with a surge in capital expenditures driving tech giants to the debt market, reshaping the credit landscape from the U.S. to Europe [6]. - The total issuance of investment-grade tech bonds in the U.S. has soared by 115% year-on-year, reaching $211 billion, with a significant portion attributed to AI-related financing [6][7]. Group 3: Financial Leverage and Capital Expenditures - The necessity for debt issuance is underscored by the enormous capital expenditures associated with AI, estimated to exceed $5 trillion, with some forecasts suggesting it could reach $7 trillion globally [10]. - Tech giants are utilizing debt to optimize their capital structure, as evidenced by Microsoft's issuance of $17 billion in bonds at a 4.5% coupon rate, while its return on equity (ROE) approaches 40% [11]. Group 4: Future of AI Debt Cycle - The current AI debt cycle is just beginning, with major companies expected to spend around $450 billion annually on AI and data centers, leading to a projected $725 billion in operating cash flow by 2026 [13]. - The high-rated bond market is anticipated to play a crucial role in financing, with AI-related issuers already constituting 14.5% of this market, and future annual issuances potentially reaching $300 billion [14].