格隆汇APP·2025-11-17 10:35Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry, previously labeled as "big and clumsy," is experiencing a resurgence, driven by supply-demand balance and technological advancements, positioning it as a high-growth sector worth 4 trillion yuan [5][10]. Supply-Demand Dynamics - Since September, the chemical sector index has surged over 60%, primarily due to price increases in battery chemicals [3]. - The industry has shifted from chaotic overcapacity to a more balanced supply-demand structure, aided by policy changes and strategic industry actions [6][9]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "14th Five-Year Plan" has curtailed blind capacity expansion, reducing industry capacity growth from double digits to below 7% [9]. - Key resources like phosphate rock and fluorite are in tight supply, with demand from emerging industries like electric vehicles and energy storage expected to drive material demand growth over 50% by 2024 [9][10]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the chemical sector has evolved from merely increasing production capacity to focusing on high-value-added products and technological advancements [11]. - Leading companies are investing significantly in fine chemicals and emerging materials, with over 30% of Wanhua Chemical's 25.24 billion yuan investment directed towards these areas [11]. - China's chemical industry has achieved over 60% global market share in basic and fine chemicals, enhancing its pricing power internationally [12]. Investment Opportunities - The chemical sector is undergoing a strategic revaluation, with expectations of improved profitability and valuation recovery, particularly as the global chemical export demand is projected to grow by 8%-10% by 2026 [13][10]. - Key investment themes include supply contraction, high-end product development, and green transformation, with a focus on companies that can manage supply-demand dynamics and possess strong technological barriers [14][15]. - The global chemical market is expected to exceed $5.2 trillion by 2030, with China's market reaching $1.9 trillion, indicating significant growth potential [17]. Conclusion - The chemical industry is transitioning from a low-end, overcapacity model to a global leader in high-value products, driven by technological innovation and strategic resource management [16][18].