“缺货潮恐到2027年”

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip price surge is driven by supply shortages and increased demand from AI applications, leading to a new order in the storage market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of 32GB DDR5 server memory from Samsung has increased from $149 in September to $239 in November, a rise of 60% [1]. - Kingston's DDR5 16GB memory price has escalated from around 350 RMB in late September to nearly 850 RMB currently [1]. - The demand for AI computing power is causing manufacturers to prioritize high-margin products like HBM and server DDR5, resulting in record sales for companies like Samsung and SK Hynix [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Forecast - A storage module manufacturer predicts that the supply shortage will last at least until Q3 of next year, with some experts suggesting it could extend to 2027 [3]. - The DRAM market is expected to grow by 24.7% to $40.037 billion in Q3 2025, while NAND market growth is projected at 16.8% to $18.422 billion [4]. - Demand for server storage products is forecasted to increase by 40% to 50% in 2026, while supply growth is expected to be only 20% to 30% [4]. Group 3: Pricing Strategies and Market Reactions - The supply constraints from upstream manufacturers are pushing storage module manufacturers to stockpile inventory, leading to increased profit margins for those with existing stock [6]. - The current pricing structure is causing a disparity where major clients receive more stable contract prices, while smaller clients face significantly higher spot market prices [9]. - End-user manufacturers are compelled to accept rising contract prices, resulting in increased retail prices for consumer products, with some models seeing price hikes of 100 to 400 RMB [10][12]. Group 4: Impact on Consumer Market - The rising costs of storage components are expected to negatively impact consumer electronics sales, with forecasts for smartphone and laptop production being downgraded [12].