固收指数月报 | 中国债市回暖！债券回购市场开放举措或成关键

Core Insights - Bloomberg is the first global index provider to include Chinese bonds in mainstream global indices, offering a unique perspective on the Chinese bond market through the Bloomberg China Fixed Income Index series [3] - The Bloomberg China Aggregate Index recorded a return of 0.65% in October, with a year-to-date return of 0.71% [5] - The return for the China Treasury and Policy Bank Index in October was 0.66%, while the year-to-date return for the Chinese yuan measured in local currency was 0.60%, improving its ranking from 26th to 25th among 27 currencies [5] Index Performance - Long-term bonds outperformed short-term bonds in October, with returns for various maturity indices as follows: - 1-3 years: 0.28% - 3-5 years: 0.45% - 5-7 years: 0.60% - 7-10 years: 0.83% - 10+ years: 1.54% [5][7] - The China Aggregate Index level stands at 244.67, with a year-to-date return of 0.71% [7] Market Dynamics - In August, the total outflow of funds from the Chinese bond market reached 99.7 billion yuan, a decrease from the record 303.8 billion yuan in July [13] - The outflow from Chinese government bonds slowed to 14.5 billion yuan, while foreign capital outflow from negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) decreased to 67.8 billion yuan [13] - The opening of the bond repurchase market to foreign investors may help alleviate short-term outflows and support the long-term internationalization of the Chinese bond market [13] Credit Market Insights - Recent credit events in the U.S. have impacted Asian credit spreads, which widened to 66 basis points, indicating a potential risk in the market [13] - The geopolitical landscape, including U.S.-China trade tensions and the Dutch government's intervention in ASML, adds uncertainty to the global economic outlook [13]