9月非农领衔经济数据回归，市场在担心什么

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in the U.S. stock market, driven by investor concerns over artificial intelligence-related trades and the delayed release of significant economic data due to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in December is also highlighted as a critical factor influencing market sentiment and monetary policy expectations [3]. Economic Data Interpretation - Investors are questioning whether the stock market sell-off has further downside potential and how the upcoming economic data will be interpreted. Market participants may discount individual data points due to the anticipation of more timely updates [5]. - The U.S. September employment report, initially scheduled for October 3, is expected to have less impact on the market compared to the November non-farm payroll data, which will be released before the Fed's December meeting [5][6]. Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Outlook - Market sentiment is leaning towards a negative interpretation of economic data, with concerns about a struggling job market and persistent inflation above target levels. The absence of significant investment in artificial intelligence could lead to a recession [6]. - Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have shifted focus back to inflation concerns, overshadowing the labor market. The market is currently pricing in a 50% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in December [7]. Wall Street Warnings - The stock market has experienced renewed volatility, partly due to cooling expectations for a Fed rate cut in December and valuation concerns impacting technology stocks, particularly those related to AI [10]. - Analysts express uncertainty about whether the current market dynamics represent a one-time event or a turning point in market sentiment. Limited economic data availability adds to this uncertainty [11]. - Warnings from Wall Street suggest that the S&P 500 index may face additional downward pressure, with expectations of a 5% decline to around 6350 points due to factors like Fed policy and high valuations [12]. Future Projections - Analysts predict that the Fed may cut rates three times, totaling 75 basis points, in response to economic conditions next year [8]. - Concerns about a potential market correction are echoed by various financial leaders, who cite geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, and high valuations in AI stocks as significant risks [12][13].