Jinko Solar(SH:688223) 证券时报·2025-11-18 07:56Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing participation of listed companies in the futures market to manage price risks, particularly in the context of volatile raw material prices in the upstream solar energy sector, such as polysilicon [1][2]. Group 1: Market Participation and Trends - In October alone, 458 listed companies announced hedging activities, a 2.3-fold increase year-on-year, indicating a growing awareness of price risk management [2]. - The number of companies participating in hedging is expected to exceed 2000 by the end of the year, reflecting a significant trend in the industry [2][9]. Group 2: Company-Specific Hedging Activities - Camel Group announced a maximum trading margin and option premium of 90 million yuan for futures hedging to mitigate risks from raw material price fluctuations [4]. - JinkoSolar plans to increase its hedging margin from 660 million yuan to 1.5 billion yuan, with a maximum contract value of 10.3 billion yuan, emphasizing risk management over speculative trading [4]. - EVE Energy adjusted its hedging limits, raising the maximum margin from 350 million yuan to 1 billion yuan, and the maximum contract value from 3.5 billion yuan to 8.5 billion yuan [4]. Group 3: Polysilicon Price Volatility - Polysilicon prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with a drop from 56,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 34,400 yuan/ton by June, a decline of 38.6% [5]. - Following a rebound driven by "anti-involution" policies, polysilicon prices rose from 34,400 yuan/ton to 47,100 yuan/ton in July, marking a 36.9% increase [5]. - The weighted contract price for polysilicon futures reached a record high of 57,945 yuan/ton on September 5, reflecting a 91% increase from late June [5]. Group 4: Industry Dynamics and Strategies - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to create a short-term price fluctuation in the polysilicon market, with upstream price increases gradually affecting downstream sectors [7]. - The domestic polysilicon production is projected to be around 382,000 tons in Q4, a slight year-on-year increase of 3%, while the total production for 2025 is expected to drop by 27.3% to approximately 1.34 million tons [7]. - Differentiated strategies and comprehensive risk control are essential for success, with production companies primarily focusing on selling hedges, while downstream companies should focus on buying hedges [7]. Group 5: Storage and Supply-Demand Balance - The rapid expansion of polysilicon production capacity has led to supply-demand imbalances, prompting discussions on a storage platform to stabilize prices [8]. - The potential storage initiative may require nearly 100 billion yuan in funding, with several obstacles still needing to be addressed [8].