阿尔法工场研究院·2025-11-19 00:07Core Viewpoint - The "super cycle" of storage chip prices is likely to persist for some time, driven by the increasing demand for high-bandwidth memory from AI accelerators like NVIDIA's H100, leading to significant price increases in DRAM and NAND chips [4][20]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The demand surge for high-performance SSDs and high-end memory from AI data centers has led manufacturers to prioritize production for higher-margin products, resulting in a squeeze on supply for mid-range DDR and client SSDs, thus pushing up prices [7]. - By 2025, the global DRAM market revenue is expected to exceed $200 billion, with HBM contributing over half of the profit growth despite accounting for less than 30% of the market [7]. - The average bill of materials (BOM) for laptops typically sees DRAM and NAND accounting for 10-20% of costs, meaning a 20% increase in storage costs could raise BOM by $30-50, potentially eroding 3-6 percentage points of gross margin if manufacturers cannot pass on costs [7][8]. Impact on PC Manufacturers - Consumer-oriented manufacturers like Dell, HP, and Acer are particularly vulnerable to rising storage costs due to their high reliance on the consumer market, where price sensitivity is extreme [8]. - According to Morgan Stanley, Dell and HP are the most sensitive to storage price increases, with expected declines in PC gross margins of 2-4 percentage points in FY2026 [8]. - Lenovo and Apple are viewed as potential beneficiaries of the storage price uptrend due to their strong customer bases and supply chain management capabilities [4][5]. Resilience of Lenovo and Apple - Lenovo's high proportion of enterprise customers (over 65%) allows for better cost transfer capabilities compared to competitors reliant on consumer sales [12]. - Lenovo's market share exceeds 25%, providing significant leverage in supply chain negotiations, while its long-term contracts with enterprise clients help stabilize pricing [11][12]. - Apple maintains strong control over its supply chain through long-term contracts with suppliers, allowing it to secure favorable pricing and prioritize its production needs [16][17]. Long-term Outlook - The current surge in storage chip prices is reshaping the cost structure of the PC industry, with Lenovo and Apple positioned to weather the storm better than their competitors [10][19]. - The ongoing "super cycle" may accelerate market share differentiation among PC manufacturers, potentially benefiting Lenovo and Apple in the long run [20].