头部券商最新研判！牛市远未结束，经济或将“非典型”复苏

Core Viewpoints - The year 2026 marks the beginning of a new phase of high-quality development for China's economy and capital markets, as highlighted by Liu Jian, Chairman of Shenwan Hongyuan [3][5]. Economic Outlook - The economy is expected to experience a "non-typical" recovery in 2026, driven by the retreat of the "scar effect" and ongoing domestic demand expansion policies. Key factors contributing to export resilience include fiscal expansion in developed economies, easing of China-U.S. tariff conflicts, and improvements in China's industrial competitiveness [4][11]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and original breakthroughs, with R&D expenditure projected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, representing about 2.69% of GDP, surpassing Japan and South Korea in scale [5][10]. Capital Market Development - The capital market is set to enter a new stage of high-quality development, with a focus on direct financing and reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Growth Enterprise Market, and Beijing Stock Exchange. This will enhance the market's inclusiveness and adaptability [5][8]. - The formation of a healthy market ecosystem is expected to significantly increase the attractiveness of the market, with institutional investors' share of the market value projected to exceed 20% by the end of 2024 [8]. Bull Market Analysis - The bull market is far from over, with the potential for a two-phase bull market structure. The first phase, termed "Bull Market 1.0," occurred in 2025, while the second phase, "Bull Market 2.0," may begin in the second half of 2026 [4][15]. - The cyclical improvement in fundamentals, the strengthening of emerging industries, and the shift of residents' asset allocation towards equities are expected to support a comprehensive bull market [15].