10年期日债收益率，创金融危机以来新高

Core Viewpoint - Japan's 10-year government bond yield has surged to its highest level in 17 years, driven by investor expectations of a substantial fiscal spending plan from Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's government, leading to a sell-off in Japanese bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 2 basis points to 1.765%, marking the highest level since June 2008 [1]. - Longer-term bonds also experienced significant sell-offs, with the 40-year bond yield reaching a historical peak of 3.695% and the 20-year bond yield climbing to 2.815%, the highest since 1999 [3]. - The market's reaction is attributed to a proposal from a ruling party committee to draft a supplementary budget exceeding 25 trillion yen (approximately 161 billion USD) to stimulate the economy and protect households from rising prices [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Context - Japan's economy is facing persistent downward risks, as indicated by a preliminary report showing a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter contraction in GDP for Q3, the first decline since Q1 2024 [4]. - The government’s desire to expand fiscal spending is linked to these economic challenges, raising concerns about potential fiscal risks if the supplementary budget is as large as currently discussed [4]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Reactions - Investors are reacting to the potential for rising inflation and interest rates, as well as weakened demand from traditional buyers of Japanese bonds, which have seen a decline for two consecutive years [5]. - Year-to-date, the 30-year Japanese government bond yield has increased by over 100 basis points, contrasting with a decline in the same maturity U.S. bond yield [6]. - The recent depreciation of the yen has sparked discussions about potential intervention by Japanese authorities, with the USD/JPY exchange rate surpassing the significant 155 mark [6].