这轮牛市券商涨不过银行和保险？真相和机会来了！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of brokerage stocks compared to banks and insurance stocks during a slow bull market, emphasizing that brokerage stocks have not underperformed as perceived, but rather are in a consolidation phase after a strong rally [2][3][4]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - From September 24, 2024, to the present, the brokerage sector has seen an overall increase of over 47%, while the banking sector has risen over 36% and the insurance sector slightly over 33% [5]. - Since April 7, 2025, the brokerage sector has rebounded by 14%, outperforming banks at 9% and insurance at 5%, with Agricultural Bank showing a significant increase of nearly 57% during this period [7]. Group 2: Asset Characteristics - The perception that banks and insurance outperform brokerages is attributed to the inherent characteristics of these asset classes, where brokerages have a higher beta, leading to greater volatility and less favorable experiences for impatient retail investors [8][9]. - Banks and insurance companies are considered stable investments, benefiting from interest margins and long-term premiums, with consistent dividend yields of 3%-5%, providing a safety net during market fluctuations [9][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article highlights that the strong performance of individual stocks, such as Agricultural Bank, can create a misleading impression of the overall banking sector's performance, as many smaller banks have not seen similar gains [13][14]. - Brokerages are described as "bull market amplifiers," with their earnings closely tied to market activity, leading to significant gains during bullish phases but also sharp declines during downturns [15][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current market is characterized as a slow bull market, with banks and insurance benefiting from their stability, while brokerages are expected to gain momentum for the next bull market anticipated in 2026 [22][23]. - The article suggests that the period from year-end to the Chinese New Year often presents seasonal opportunities for brokerages, with an 80% probability of price increases during January and February over the past five years [26][27].