经济观察报·2025-11-19 11:11Core Viewpoint - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry is facing significant challenges, including continuous losses for over three years, rising raw material costs, and pressure from downstream battery manufacturers, leading to a critical need for resolution in the industry [2][3][4]. Industry Challenges - The LFP material prices have plummeted from 173,000 yuan/ton to 34,000 yuan/ton from the end of 2022 to August 2025, a decline of over 80%, while the average debt ratio of six listed companies in the sector is 67.8% [3][4]. - The industry is experiencing a dual squeeze, with upstream raw material prices rising while downstream battery manufacturers refuse to accept price increases, creating a situation where companies face losses regardless of whether they accept orders or not [8][10]. Demand Growth - The core application scenarios for LFP are expanding, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeding 45% in China, and a projected demand increase of over 30% for LFP materials in the coming year [6][8]. - The energy storage sector is expected to see a 60% year-on-year increase in installed capacity by 2025, with global energy storage battery shipments predicted to grow by 30% in 2026 [6][8]. Competitive Landscape - Chinese LFP products hold a dominant position in the global market due to technological, cost, and supply chain advantages, despite attempts by other countries to reduce reliance on Chinese products [7][8]. - The average cost of LFP production is around 15,600 to 16,200 yuan/ton, while the current market price is approximately 14,770 yuan/ton, leading to losses of nearly 1,000 yuan for every ton sold [9][10]. Industry Response - The establishment of the LFP Materials Subcommittee aims to address industry challenges by auditing costs and providing transparent pricing data to help companies set reasonable prices and curb destructive competition [13][14]. - Companies are exploring collective price increases to counteract the pressure from battery manufacturers, with some firms already controlling production capacity to stabilize prices [14][15]. Future Outlook - The anticipated demand from both domestic and international markets suggests that LFP prices are likely to rise, with projections indicating potential price increases by the end of this year and into the first half of next year [15].