专家预测：十年内，至少还有一半的新车带油箱

Core Viewpoint - The competition between electric and hybrid vehicles is intensifying as pure electric vehicles (BEVs) surpass 50% of the new energy vehicle market share by 2025, with future trends becoming uncertain due to the upcoming subsidy reductions for new energy vehicles [3][4]. Group 1: Future Projections - According to the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0," it is predicted that by 2035, 52% of vehicles will still have internal combustion engines [4]. - By 2035, new energy passenger vehicles are expected to account for over 80% of new passenger vehicle sales, with a BEV to PHEV ratio of 6:4, indicating that fuel vehicles and hybrid vehicles will still hold a significant market share [4]. - In 2030, the market share of new vehicles with fuel tanks is projected to be 65%, decreasing to 32% by 2040 [5]. Group 2: Current Market Trends - The sales growth of pure electric vehicles has been rapid, with a 20% year-on-year increase in retail sales in October, while range-extended and plug-in hybrid vehicles saw declines of 7.7% and 10.3%, respectively [6]. - The market share of pure electric vehicles has dramatically shifted, with their proportion rising from 49% to 74% compared to range-extended vehicles [6]. - In the wholesale structure for the first ten months of the year, pure electric vehicles accounted for 62% of sales, a 4% increase year-on-year, while plug-in hybrids and range-extended vehicles saw declines [6].