全球股市“灰犀牛”狂奔

Group 1 - The "Buffett Indicator" for the US stock market has surged above 240%, indicating an unprecedented overvaluation, significantly exceeding the historical high of around 150% during the internet bubble [1] - Concerns are rising regarding whether AI can generate sufficient revenue or profits to justify the massive investments in infrastructure, as highlighted by Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet [1] - The global stock market is experiencing a downturn, with major markets like the US, Europe, and Asia showing synchronized declines, driven by fears of an AI bubble and changing interest rate expectations [3][5] Group 2 - Japan's economy contracted in the third quarter, with GDP shrinking by 1.8% on an annualized basis, raising concerns about the effectiveness of potential fiscal stimulus measures [7] - The Japanese government is expected to announce a large-scale economic stimulus plan, potentially exceeding 13.9 trillion yen (approximately 898 billion), which could exacerbate public debt issues and lead to market instability [7][8] - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has reached a 17-year high, indicating rising borrowing costs and contributing to a decline in the yen's value against the dollar [7][9] Group 3 - A recent survey by Bank of America indicates that 53% of fund managers believe AI-related stocks are in a bubble, with 63% considering the overall stock market to be overvalued, marking a record high in concerns [11] - Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves have reached a record $381.7 billion, signaling a defensive strategy amid concerns over market valuations and potential future earnings slowdowns [12] - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by major central banks may provide some support to the market, but its effectiveness could be limited due to pre-existing expectations and ongoing inflation concerns [12][13]