陆挺预测“十五五”出口增速或明显回落，但斌直言“投资要去大海里打鲸鱼”

Group 1 - The global economy is currently in a "Kondratiev wave depression," where old technological potentials are exhausted and new technologies have not yet matured, leading to a zero-sum mentality replacing multilateral cooperation [2][7] - China's export growth rate, which averaged nearly 8% over the past five years, is expected to decline to a range of 3% to 5% during the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2][8] - The real estate sector, while no longer a growth engine, still poses significant macroeconomic challenges due to its debt chain and historical issues that must be addressed in the next five years [3][8] Group 2 - Investment strategies must shift from traditional "efficiency-first" globalization to focus on high-potential sectors like artificial intelligence (AI), which is seen as the next major growth driver [4][11] - The concept of "safety-based compensatory investment" has emerged, where companies must incur additional costs to mitigate risks, thus increasing the overall cost of globalization [6][7] - The current macroeconomic environment necessitates a long-term deleveraging process to address the historical debts left by the real estate sector, which is deeply intertwined with local finances and infrastructure [8][10] Group 3 - The investment landscape is changing, with a focus on companies that can leverage AI capabilities, as the ability to utilize AI will increasingly determine a company's value [12] - The upcoming generational wealth transfer in China, involving 3 million family businesses and a wealth scale of 300 trillion RMB, presents challenges in maintaining wealth across generations [13][15] - Institutional governance is essential for breaking the "wealth does not last beyond three generations" curse, emphasizing the need for structured family offices and governance systems [15]