告别“博行情” 钢贸商闯入套利战场

Core Viewpoint - The steel trading industry is facing unprecedented challenges due to a significant divergence between futures and spot prices, leading to collective losses and a need for strategic transformation among traders [1][6][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Traditional trading strategies based on information and price discrepancies are no longer viable for established steel traders [1][6]. - Since August 2025, a persistent divergence between rebar futures and spot prices has emerged, with the price gap exceeding 80 yuan/ton by mid-November [5][10]. - The current market conditions are characterized by a strong spot market supported by supply-side constraints, while the futures market reflects pessimistic demand expectations [5][9]. Group 2: Inventory Management - Many steel traders are adopting a "low inventory operation" model to mitigate risks associated with price declines, reducing their stock levels significantly [5][15]. - A steel trading company has cut its rebar inventory from 20,000 tons to less than 8,000 tons due to concerns over future price depreciation [5][15]. - The trend towards low inventory is driven by heightened sensitivity to financial security and the rising costs associated with holding stock [15][17]. Group 3: Financial Pressures - Steel traders are experiencing increased financial strain due to longer sales cycles and higher implicit financing costs, as inventory turnover has slowed significantly [20][22]. - Banks are reassessing their lending to the steel industry, leading to higher interest rates and additional financial burdens for traders [21][22]. - The average profit margin for steel companies remains low, contributing to a challenging credit environment [22][23]. Group 4: Strategic Adaptations - Traders are exploring new operational strategies, such as utilizing futures for risk hedging and adjusting customer bases to focus on reliable clients [30][31]. - Some companies are engaging in arbitrage trading by taking advantage of the price discrepancies between futures and spot markets [16][31]. - The shift towards financialization and supply chain services is becoming essential for survival in the current market landscape [30][31].