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Core Viewpoint - The steel trading industry is facing unprecedented challenges due to a significant divergence between futures and spot prices, leading to collective losses among traders as operational costs cannot be covered by the price differences [1][6][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The divergence between futures and spot prices for rebar has been expanding since August 2025, with the price difference exceeding 80 yuan/ton by mid-November, indicating a stark contrast between the optimistic spot market and the pessimistic futures market [4][5][10]. - Policies aimed at reducing overcapacity and promoting orderly competition have led to a significant reduction in steel inventories, with rebar stocks down 15.3% year-on-year as of mid-November 2025 [8][9]. - The current market conditions reflect a fundamental shift in the steel trading landscape, where traditional profit-making strategies based on price discrepancies are becoming obsolete [6][12]. Group 2: Trader Strategies - Many steel traders are adopting a "low inventory operation" model to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations, with some reducing their rebar stocks from 20,000 tons to below 8,000 tons [5][15]. - Financial management and refined inventory control are becoming critical for survival, as traders face increased pressure from both inventory costs and financing challenges [13][20]. - Large trading firms are exploring more diverse strategies, such as engaging in arbitrage trading to capitalize on the price differences between futures and spot markets, with some firms reportedly securing profits of 80 to 100 yuan per ton through these strategies [16][17]. Group 3: Financial Pressures - The steel trading sector is experiencing heightened financial strain, with banks increasing loan rates and requiring reassessments of creditworthiness, leading to additional financial burdens for traders [21][22]. - The average profit margin for steel companies remains low, at just 1.97%, which exacerbates the credit risks perceived by banks [22][23]. - Traders are facing longer payment cycles from clients, with accounts receivable turnover days reaching a historical high of 83 days, significantly impacting cash flow [27][29]. Group 4: Adaptation and Future Outlook - In response to the evolving market conditions, traders are making difficult decisions, such as liquidating inventory at lower prices to improve cash flow and exploring new business models like consignment sales to reduce financial risk [30][31]. - The ability to adapt quickly to new market rules and maintain cash flow will determine which traders can survive and potentially thrive in the future [31][32].