谁在“做空”水晶剑？

Core Viewpoint - The "Double 11" sales event for liquor this year has revealed significant price drops and a concentrated reconciliation of channel systems, exceeding industry expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - This year's "Double 11" saw a deeper discounting trend compared to previous years, indicating a release of pent-up emotions within the market [4]. - The core product of Jian Nan Chun, the Crystal Sword, experienced a notable decline in price despite maintaining high sales volume on platforms like Tmall and Meituan [5][6]. - The price of the Crystal Sword fell to around 350 RMB, significantly below its factory price of 410 RMB, due to aggressive subsidies and promotions from various platforms [5][10]. Group 2: Channel and Inventory Issues - The traditional speculative logic in channel management, where products were considered "safe bricks" for investment, has failed during this year's "Double 11" [7]. - Many orders for the Crystal Sword on platforms like Douyin remained unfulfilled post "Double 11," leading to financial losses for resellers who had anticipated selling at a profit [8][9]. - The market in Ningbo, a key area for the Crystal Sword, has seen rapid price changes due to its transparent channel network and high liquidity [12][13]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - Jian Nan Chun's revenue for 2024 is projected at 16.94 billion RMB, with a growth rate of only 3.74%, a significant decline from the previous year's 13.55% [28]. - Achieving the ambitious revenue target of 30 billion RMB by 2025 would require a staggering 77.1% year-on-year growth, which is challenging given the current market conditions [28]. - The brand's growth remains heavily reliant on the Crystal Sword, while its high-end product lines have not yet established a stable consumer base [28][29]. Group 4: Strategic Outlook - The liquor industry is shifting from growth to structural adjustment, with increasing pressure on mid-range price segments and tighter price linkages between e-commerce and offline channels [31]. - Jian Nan Chun faces critical questions regarding restoring channel confidence, re-establishing price order, and ensuring that distributors do not experience repeated concentrated sell-offs [31]. - The ability of Jian Nan Chun to leverage the sales momentum from "Double 11" to enhance brand competitiveness remains to be seen [31].