高市早苗将是“特拉斯2.0”？

Core Viewpoint - The spending stimulus plan by Japan's new Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, has led to a significant decline in Japanese government bonds and the yen, raising concerns about potential capital flight reminiscent of the turmoil in the UK bond market in 2022 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The yen has depreciated sharply, with the USD/JPY exchange rate reaching 157.89, the highest since January, indicating a potential intervention zone for the Bank of Japan [1]. - Japanese 10-year government bond yields have surged to a 17-year high, reflecting market anxiety over the fiscal implications of the stimulus plan [1][4]. Group 2: Comparisons to Past Events - The current situation in Japan is compared to the "Truss crisis" in the UK, where a poorly funded tax cut plan led to a significant drop in the pound and a near-collapse of the UK bond market [4]. - Concerns are raised that if confidence in the government's low inflation commitment erodes, the rationale for purchasing Japanese government bonds may disappear, leading to destructive capital outflows [4]. Group 3: Expert Opinions - Albert Edwards from Societe Generale highlights that the rise in long-term Japanese bond yields is a critical warning sign that is often overlooked by investors [5]. - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield exceeded 3.35%, up from approximately 3% earlier in the month, indicating a gradual but relentless increase in yields [5]. - Saravelos expresses skepticism about the authorities' ability to remain passive if current price trends continue, emphasizing the need to monitor for signs of broader capital flight and its potential impact on the stock market [5].