不良贷款，加速“促销”转让！

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in non-performing loans (NPLs) and the market for transferring these loans, indicating rising risks in retail loans despite overall asset quality remaining stable among listed banks [1][6]. Group 1: Non-Performing Loans Data - The balance of non-performing loans and the non-performing loan ratio for commercial banks have both slightly increased [1]. - The market for transferring non-performing loans has seen a surge, with over 26 billion yuan in asset packages listed since November, and the total for the first half of 2025 exceeding 167 billion yuan, doubling from the same period in 2024 [1][2]. - The issuance of asset-backed securities (ABS) for non-performing loans has surpassed 67.857 billion yuan this year, reflecting an over 80% increase compared to the previous year [1]. Group 2: Retail Loan Risks - There is a consensus in the industry that retail loan risks are becoming more apparent, with no signs of reaching a peak yet [1][7]. - Major banks are increasingly transferring personal non-performing loans to improve asset quality and release capital [1][3]. - The rise in retail loan risks is characterized by a significant increase in non-performing rates for personal loans, credit card overdrafts, and personal business loans [6][7]. Group 3: Transfer Market Dynamics - The demand for transferring non-performing loans has intensified as banks approach year-end, with many institutions listing large asset packages, particularly in retail loans [2]. - The average discount rates for transferring personal loans are influenced by asset type and overdue duration, with some transactions seeing recovery prices as low as 10% of the original amount [4][5]. - The trend of "discount promotions" for non-performing assets is becoming more common as financial institutions seek to expedite transactions [4][5]. Group 4: Specific Bank Data - As of September, the non-performing loan ratio for China’s major banks has shown an upward trend, with specific figures indicating increases for banks like China Communications Bank and China Merchants Bank [6][7]. - For instance, China Communications Bank's personal loan non-performing ratio rose from 1.08% at the end of last year to 1.42% by September [6].