聚焦全球能源 | 亚太地区油气生厂商2026年展望

Core Insights - The global energy market is experiencing volatility due to rapid industry developments, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuating supply-demand dynamics [3][4][10] Group 1: Market Outlook - Asian oil and gas producers will face challenges from oil price fluctuations primarily influenced by supply-demand factors, with WTI crude oil prices expected to remain below $60 per barrel for most of 2026 [3][10] - The MSCI AC Asia-Pacific Energy Index's price-to-book ratio is currently at 1.2, above its 10-year average of 1.1, indicating that investors have not fully accounted for the risks of declining oil prices [3][7] Group 2: Performance Analysis - From January 1 to October 31, the Asian oil and gas index has underperformed the broader market due to weakened demand expectations stemming from U.S. tariffs and OPEC+ production increases [4][5] - The MSCI AC Asia-Pacific Energy Index rose by 13.86% during the same period, while the broader MSCI Asia-Pacific Index increased by 25.83%, highlighting a widening performance gap since August [5] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December as part of a gradual exit from voluntary production cuts implemented in 2023, which may lead to a supply surplus in the oil market [10] - The uncertainty surrounding Russian supply could exacerbate supply disruptions and potentially lead to spikes in oil prices in 2026 [4][5]