日美央行的“按兵不动”在加剧日元贬值

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly against the US dollar, reaching a 10-month low, primarily due to the diminishing expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and skepticism regarding the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike in December [2][4][6]. Group 1: Yen Depreciation Details - The yen's exchange rate against the US dollar fell to the range of 157.5 to 157.9 yen, marking the first time since January 15 that it has reached this level [4]. - Compared to the exchange rate of 147 yen per dollar before Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide's victory in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election, the yen has depreciated by approximately 10 yen [4]. - The yen has also weakened against the euro, reaching a rate of 181.5 to 181.9 yen per euro, setting a new low since the euro's introduction in 1999 [4]. Group 2: Factors Behind Yen Depreciation - The acceleration of yen depreciation is attributed to multiple factors, including the declining probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to increased buying of the dollar and selling of the yen [6]. - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated a strong likelihood of maintaining the current policy rate, which has contributed to the market's shift in sentiment regarding future rate cuts [6][7]. - The US government shutdown has obscured the actual economic situation, further diminishing expectations for a rate cut [6]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Economic Data - Market predictions for the Federal Reserve's policy rate have shifted, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping from 50% to 30% [7]. - The upcoming economic data releases, including US employment figures and retail sales, are crucial for assessing economic trends before the December Federal Reserve meeting [8]. - The Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike is under scrutiny, with current market expectations for a December rate increase at around 40%, down from approximately 60% earlier in November [9]. Group 4: Government and Central Bank Stance - There is a lack of heightened vigilance from the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan regarding currency intervention, contributing to the market's inclination to sell the yen [10]. - Recent discussions among Japanese officials did not address the exchange rate specifically, leading to disappointment among market participants who anticipated a stronger stance against yen depreciation [10].