刚刚，全球大跌！美联储，突爆大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is experiencing a significant downturn, primarily driven by declining expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to increased risk aversion among investors [1][5]. Market Performance - Asian markets saw widespread declines, with the MSCI Asia Emerging Markets Index dropping 2.78%, and the Nikkei 225 Index falling 2.4% [2]. - The A-share market also faced turbulence, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 2.45% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 3.41% [2]. - Cryptocurrency markets were heavily impacted, with Bitcoin dropping over 8% to approximately $84,372, and Ethereum falling more than 9% [2]. - Gold and oil prices also declined, with gold at $4,043.61 per ounce and Brent crude oil at $62.6 per barrel [2]. Federal Reserve Insights - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased to 35.1%, with a 64.9% chance of maintaining current rates [3][5]. - Analysts suggest that the strong job growth reported by the U.S. Labor Department indicates a stable employment market, further reducing the likelihood of imminent rate cuts [3]. Economic Predictions - Vanguard's fixed income head predicts that the Federal Reserve will only implement one or two more rate cuts after two anticipated cuts this fall, contrasting with market expectations of three to four cuts by the end of 2026 [5]. - Vanguard has revised its U.S. GDP growth forecast upward, expecting growth to reach 2.25% by 2026, driven by significant investments in AI infrastructure [5]. Market Sentiment and Risks - There is a prevailing sentiment of fear in the cryptocurrency market, with analysts noting that Bitcoin has entered an extreme fear zone, reflecting a broader pessimism [2]. - Goldman Sachs has indicated that the market is in a protective mode, with investors focusing on hedging against risks, and predicting significant options expirations that could lead to further market volatility [6].