又见暴跌，这波全球流动性杀什么时候结束？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the global liquidity crisis impacting stock markets, particularly highlighting the correlation between the U.S. and A-shares, emphasizing that the current downturn is a global phenomenon rather than a localized issue [2][3]. Group 1: Global Liquidity Crisis - The current global liquidity crisis is characterized by simultaneous declines in stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies, while the U.S. dollar index has risen above 100 [2]. - This liquidity crisis is not as severe as a global recession, which would lead to prolonged declines in markets [3]. - The liquidity crisis originated from the U.S. government shutdown, which prevented funds from circulating in the market, causing short-term interest rates to spike [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's recent meetings have introduced uncertainty regarding future interest rate cuts, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping to 32% after the announcement of delayed economic data releases [12]. - The Fed's decision to stop selling government bonds and potentially restart balance sheet expansion is anticipated to occur around December 1 [21]. - The upcoming December 10 meeting is expected to result in no interest rate cuts, which could stabilize the current liquidity crisis [24]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the government shutdown, the market initially rebounded but did not see a restoration of liquidity, leading to increased uncertainty among investors [11]. - The article suggests that the liquidity crisis may end around mid-December when a series of economic data releases are expected, which could indicate economic weakness [24]. - The potential recovery of global liquidity could lead to investment opportunities in various markets, including U.S., A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks, depending on the market's response to the economic data [25].