少了1万亿美元，美国会预算办公室大幅下调特朗普关税收入预期

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has revised down the long-term fiscal surplus expectations from Trump's tariff policies by $1 trillion, raising concerns about U.S. borrowing needs. The tariff revenues are insufficient to offset the impacts of the tax cuts implemented by the Trump administration [3][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Projections - CBO estimates a total surplus of $3 trillion from 2025 to 2035, down from the previous estimate of $4 trillion made in August [5]. - The tax cuts from Trump's administration are projected to increase the fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [5]. - CBO Director Philip Swagel noted that about two-thirds of the downward revision is due to adjustments based on new data, and recent tariff rate adjustments have also lowered deficit impact estimates [6]. Group 2: Tariff Rates and Revenue - The actual tariff rate is currently estimated to be approximately 16.8%, the highest level since 1935, which is about 14 percentage points higher than a year ago [6]. - For the fiscal year ending September, the U.S. fiscal deficit was $1.78 trillion, with an expected deficit of $1.82 trillion for 2024 [7]. - Higher tariff revenues are expected to cumulatively reduce the budget deficit by $2.5 trillion from 2025 to 2035, saving $500 billion in interest payments due to reduced deficits [7]. Group 3: Trade Agreements and Tariff Adjustments - Recent adjustments to tariff levels aim to alleviate consumer price concerns, with the U.S. considering the removal of tariffs on EU beef and other food products [9]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture is actively seeking to increase exports to the EU and address trade imbalances, with an annual agricultural trade deficit of $23.6 billion [9]. - If the Supreme Court rules tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) invalid, it could significantly impact fiscal revenue, with potential refunds estimated between $750 billion to $1 trillion [10]. Group 4: Current Tariff Revenue - As of September 30, 2025, the federal government has generated nearly $195 billion in revenue from tariffs for the fiscal year [11].