日本股债汇三杀，急推21万亿日元经济刺激计划

Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing significant economic challenges due to a combination of expansive fiscal policies and a weak economy, leading to a sell-off in stocks, bonds, and the yen [1][3][10]. Group 1: Economic Stimulus and Market Reaction - The Japanese government is formulating an economic stimulus plan exceeding 20 trillion yen (approximately 1354 billion USD), which has caused market volatility [1][11]. - The Nikkei 225 index has dropped by 2.4%, closing at 48,625.88 points, while the yen has depreciated against the dollar, trading at 156.79 yen per dollar [3][11]. - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds fell by 1.98% to 1.780%, indicating market reactions to the government's fiscal measures [5][8]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Currency Concerns - The Bank of Japan is hesitant about raising interest rates, which, combined with expansive fiscal policies, has led to concerns about the yen's depreciation and the stability of Japanese government bonds [10][12]. - Analysts express fears that the ongoing sell-off of Japanese assets may just be beginning, with potential implications for global liquidity and risk assets [3][10][15]. - The current fiscal and monetary policy mix is raising concerns about Japan's financial stability, with the debt burden reaching 250% of GDP and interest payments consuming about 23% of annual tax revenue [11][12]. Group 3: Economic Performance and External Factors - Japan's economy contracted by 0.4% in the third quarter, marking the first negative growth since early 2024, primarily due to weak domestic and external demand [16][17]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on Japanese exports, particularly in the automotive sector, has exacerbated economic challenges, leading to a cautious consumer sentiment amid high inflation [17][18]. - Experts predict that the Bank of Japan may not raise interest rates until 2026, as current economic conditions do not necessitate immediate tightening [16][18].