【乘联分会论坛】11月狭义乘用车零售预计225.0万辆，新能源预计135.0万辆

Market Overview - In October, the Chinese automotive market showed strong performance at the beginning of the month due to National Day promotions, new car launches, and trade-in policies, but slowed down later due to adjustments in trade-in subsidies [2] - The retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reached 2.25 million units in October, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [2] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) accounted for 1.288 million units sold, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.3% and a penetration rate of 57% [2] November Market Outlook - The automotive market in November is expected to maintain a strong sales momentum, aided by manufacturers' "Double Eleven" promotional activities [2] - However, adjustments in trade-in and subsidy policies across most provinces have created uncertainty, leading to a more neutral sales outlook among manufacturers [3] - The estimated retail market size for narrow-sense passenger vehicles in November is around 2.25 million units, which is flat month-on-month but down 8.7% year-on-year [3][5] Weekly Sales Trends - The first week of November saw an average daily retail of 46,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 19% [3] - The second week, coinciding with the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, had an average daily retail of 67,000 units, down 9% year-on-year [3] - The third week is expected to see an increase to 70,000 units daily, while the fourth week could rise to 118,000 units daily, but still below last year's levels [3][4] Uncertainty in the Market - Since June, many regions have suspended or adjusted vehicle trade-in subsidy policies, leading to a reduction in market support [5] - The retail sales of automotive consumer goods showed a year-on-year decline of 0.2% in October, indicating ongoing pressure in automotive consumption [5] - The new energy vehicle market is expected to rebound towards the end of the year, driven by the upcoming expiration of purchase tax subsidies and new model deliveries [5]