“2025第一财经金融价值年会”聚焦全球动荡中的中国经济新确定性

Core Insights - The global economy is seeking a new balance amid downward pressures and structural challenges, with geopolitical conflicts and supply chain restructuring posing significant tests [3] - The "2025 First Financial Value Annual Conference" focused on key topics such as the internationalization of the RMB, new trends in the Chinese economy, and paths to enhance household consumption [3][4] Group 1: RMB Internationalization - China is entering a "dual investment" phase, balancing "bringing in" and "going out" investments, amid a backdrop of global trade adjustments and rising geopolitical risks [5][7] - Since the Belt and Road Initiative, China's outbound direct investment (ODI) has rapidly increased, surpassing foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2015, with a significant diversification of trade partners [7] - The internationalization of the RMB is expected to accelerate during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with breakthroughs in trade settlement, payment systems, and reserve allocation, although it remains mismatched with China's economic scale [7][9] Group 2: Economic Growth and Consumption - The new quality productivity, driven by technological innovation and deep integration with the industrial chain, is becoming a core variable in China's economic growth [9][11] - There is potential for an increase in household consumption over the next five years, but challenges such as income structure, family burdens, and aging population must be addressed [11][13] - Solutions to enhance consumption include systemic reforms, stabilizing the real estate and capital markets, and improving service supply and market regulation [13] Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - The global economy is at a crossroads, with rising gold prices reflecting market uncertainty and diverging monetary policies reshaping global asset allocation [15] - The contribution of real estate to the economy has decreased to about 10%, while the stock market benefits from emerging industries and economic recovery [17] - Long-term investment opportunities remain in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, with the stock market's upward trend expected to continue [17][18]