德勤《2026年前沿技术、智能媒体与通信行业预测报告》：AI的静默落地与全球技术主权的重构

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the technology industry is entering a more pragmatic and complex phase as the initial hype around generative AI subsides, with a focus on scaling applications through data governance, system integration, and compliance [2][3]. Group 1: AI Development and Market Dynamics - By 2026, the focus of AI development will shift significantly towards "inference," with two-thirds of global computing power dedicated to running AI models, surpassing the power used for model training [3]. - The rise of "passive" usage of generative AI embedded in existing applications will lead to a user base far exceeding that of standalone tools like ChatGPT, with AI-generated summaries in search engines expected to be used three times more frequently than independent Gen AI tools by 2026 [3]. Group 2: Enterprise Transformation and AI Agents - The core of enterprise transformation will be "Agentic AI," with a predicted market size of $45 billion by 2030 if interoperability and governance challenges are effectively addressed [4]. - Traditional SaaS models are expected to be disrupted, moving towards mixed pricing models based on outcomes or usage [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Trends and Semiconductor Supply Chains - Technology sovereignty has become a central policy issue for governments, leading to accelerated efforts to establish independent digital infrastructures, particularly in AI computing power and semiconductors [5]. - Key technology trade restrictions are tightening, creating new supply chain bottlenecks, particularly around advanced manufacturing tools and technologies, which could impact a $300 billion AI chip market [5]. Group 4: Media and Content Production Trends - The media and entertainment industry is being reshaped by short videos and generative AI, with the rise of "micro-dramas" expected to double in revenue to $7.8 billion by 2026 [7]. - Video podcasts are projected to generate $5 billion in global advertising revenue by 2026, combining audio storytelling with visual elements [7]. Group 5: Telecommunications and Consumer Engagement - In developed markets, the marginal effects of technology upgrades are diminishing, leading to a shift in customer retention strategies from technical performance to brand value and service experience [6]. - By 2026, promotional strategies like free offers may prove more effective in retaining customers than emphasizing network performance [6].