轨道交通大干快上的时代结束了

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the era of rapid expansion in urban rail transit is coming to an end, as evidenced by the obstacles faced in the approval of Ningbo's fourth metro line plan. It emphasizes the need for urban rail transit to adopt new models for sustainable development in the changing economic landscape [1][5]. Group 1: Current Situation of Urban Rail Transit - As of the end of 2024, there are 58 cities in mainland China operating urban rail transit, with a total of 361 lines and 12,160 kilometers of operational mileage, including 9,306 kilometers of metro lines. This is a significant increase from 26 cities, 116 lines, and 3,618 kilometers of operational mileage a decade ago [3]. - Ningbo's current metro passenger flow intensity is 0.45 million passengers per kilometer per day, which is below the national standard of 0.7 million passengers per kilometer per day set by the State Council [4]. Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Changes - The response from Ningbo's Development and Reform Commission indicates that the conditions for submitting the fourth phase construction plan are not yet mature, reflecting a tightening of approval for rail transit planning [2][3]. - The State Council's 2018 guidelines require cities to meet specific criteria, including a GDP of over 300 billion yuan, fiscal revenue of over 30 billion yuan, and a resident population of over 3 million, along with a minimum initial passenger flow intensity [4]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Directions - The article points out that many cities are facing challenges with existing rail lines not meeting expected passenger flow, leading to increased operational pressure and costs [4][5]. - The traditional model of relying on real estate development for funding urban rail projects is becoming unsustainable, necessitating a more pragmatic approach to planning and operation, focusing on financial sustainability and realistic passenger flow estimates [5].