降息突变！美联储重磅发声！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's path for interest rate cuts has become increasingly uncertain, with internal divisions among officials regarding the necessity of further rate reductions [3][5][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated that there is no need for the Fed to cut rates in December, citing inflation risks and the appropriateness of a mildly restrictive policy to ensure inflation decreases [3][4]. - As of the latest data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December stands at 71%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 29% [3][9]. - The Fed has already implemented two rate cuts of 25 basis points since August, which Collins believes may still be suitable given the persistent inflation above the 2% target [5][6]. Group 2: Internal Divisions - The internal divisions within the Fed have intensified, making the upcoming December meeting one of the most uncertain in recent years [7][10]. - Collins has expressed caution regarding further rate cuts, indicating that the conditions for additional cuts are relatively high [5][10]. - The voting dynamics are complex, as key leaders like Powell and Williams may face opposition from other voting members who are hesitant about rate cuts [10]. Group 3: Economic Data and Decision-Making - The delay in the release of important economic data, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment reports, complicates the Fed's decision-making process [11]. - The postponement of the November employment report and the CPI data until after the Fed's decision adds to the uncertainty surrounding the December meeting [11].