散户认购越积极，亏损概率越大？ETF新老赛道建仓策略分化

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant divergence in ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) building strategies amid rising risk aversion, highlighting the differences in institutional participation and stock coverage speed between traditional and emerging ETF sectors [1][2]. ETF Building Strategies - There is a notable disparity in the building pace of new ETFs, with traditional sector ETFs seeing higher institutional participation and faster stock coverage compared to previously popular sectors that now have a higher retail investor ratio and cautious institutional involvement [1][2]. - The newly launched Penghua Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF has a staggering 97.08% retail investor participation, with only about 3% held by institutional investors, and a cautious stock position of less than 2% as of November 20 [2]. Performance of Different Sectors - Some sectors that have not performed well this year are becoming targets for new ETF investments, such as the Bosera National Industrial Software ETF, which achieved a stock position of 47% just a week before its launch [3]. - The article notes that the first major holding of the Bosera ETF, BGI Genomics, has seen a year-to-date decline of approximately 16% [3]. Lessons from Previous ETF Launches - The cautious approach in the biotechnology sector may stem from past experiences where high retail participation led to poor performance, as seen with earlier launched biotechnology ETFs that have not generated positive returns [4][5]. - The article highlights that the Huatai-PineBridge Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF, despite being launched in a hot market, has lost 15% of its value within two months, indicating that high initial enthusiasm can serve as a contrary indicator [5]. Shift in Investment Focus - As the year-end approaches, there is a shift in focus towards traditional low-position industries, with some fund companies suggesting a cautious approach to high-position sectors [6]. - The market is showing a preference for traditional sectors like electricity, coal, and steel, while technology sectors are being overlooked, reflecting a demand for safer investments [6]. Future Market Outlook - The article suggests that for the market to continue its upward trend, macro policies and industrial logic need to align, particularly in emerging tech industries like AI and robotics, which are at a critical commercialization phase [7]. - The potential for systemic revaluation in traditional economic sectors is highlighted, contingent on supportive policies from both supply and demand sides [7].