“高市日元贬值”或令海外投资者远离日本市场

Group 1 - The Japanese market has experienced a significant change in sentiment since November, characterized by declines in stocks, bonds, and the yen, leading to a "triple hit" of equities, bonds, and currency [2][4]. - The Nikkei average index fell by 3% last week, with a total decline of 7% compared to the end of October, while the yen depreciated by 2% and long-term interest rates rose by 0.12% [4][9]. - The initial positive interpretation of Prime Minister Kishida's fiscal expansion has shifted as concerns about the negative impacts on the stock market have increased [6][8]. Group 2 - The Japanese government's comprehensive economic measures, amounting to 21.3 trillion yen, have raised concerns about the sustainability of public debt supported by private savings amid stable inflation expectations [6][8]. - The depreciation of the yen to the 157 yen range against the dollar is attributed to "re-inflation policies" under inflation, which may lead to a loss of confidence in the government's low inflation commitments [6][8]. - The decline in the Nikkei index, when calculated in USD, has exceeded 9%, indicating a significant reversal of gains from the "Kishida trade" [9][10]. Group 3 - The yield spread between long-term rates and the earnings yield of TOPIX 500 stocks is narrowing rapidly, indicating a potential overvaluation of stocks at a 10-year high [10]. - Concerns are raised about the lack of political parties prioritizing fiscal discipline and efficient spending, which could exacerbate the negative reactions in the bond and currency markets [10]. - Despite the overall negative sentiment, there are signs of capital shifting towards undervalued stocks in sectors like automotive and engineering, suggesting that not all market participants are pessimistic [10].