上市飙涨 5 倍、随后腰斩，英伟达“亲儿子”CRWV 股价神话何时重现？

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that cloud computing is undergoing a significant transformation, with traditional giants like AWS focusing on AI transitions while new players like CoreWeave are emerging as key players in the AI infrastructure space, referred to as "Neocloud" [3][6] - CoreWeave has rapidly evolved from a cryptocurrency mining company to a unicorn valued at $37 billion, with revenue skyrocketing 100 times in two years, driven by strategic partnerships with NVIDIA and major clients like OpenAI and Microsoft [5][9] - The future of CoreWeave is uncertain; it could either become the next Amazon or face a fate similar to the Cisco bubble of the early 2000s, highlighting the need for a cautious approach to investment in Neocloud [3][22] Neocloud Emergence - AI's demand for computing power has exposed the limitations of traditional cloud architectures, creating opportunities for Neocloud providers like CoreWeave, which focus on delivering NVIDIA GPU power efficiently [6][7] - NVIDIA's strategy involves supporting new players like CoreWeave to counterbalance established giants, ensuring that they remain reliant on NVIDIA's technology [8] CoreWeave Analysis - CoreWeave's revenue is projected to grow from $16 million in 2022 to $1.9 billion in 2024, with expectations to double again to $5 billion in 2025 due to large contracts with OpenAI and Microsoft [9] - The company's business model is likened to a financial firm, leveraging long-term contracts with major clients to secure debt financing for GPU acquisitions [11] Operational Challenges - CoreWeave faces significant operational challenges, including high debt levels exceeding $19 billion and a net loss of $715 million in the first nine months of 2025, indicating a high-leverage, low-margin business model [13][15] - The company is heavily reliant on Microsoft, which accounted for 62%-72% of its revenue in 2024, posing a risk if Microsoft develops its own capabilities [15] Competitive Landscape - Other players in the Neocloud space, such as Nebius, are emerging with different risk profiles; Nebius is noted for its low debt and strong cash position, projecting $1 billion in annual recurring revenue by 2025 [18][19] - Applied Digital operates as a data center provider for Neocloud companies, avoiding the risks associated with GPU depreciation while benefiting from the appreciation of data center assets [20] Future Outlook - If CoreWeave maintains its growth trajectory, it could reach revenues of $65 billion by 2030-2032, with a potential market valuation of $650 billion, contingent on sustained AI demand and market share retention [22] - Investors are advised to focus on execution capabilities, diversify risks, and monitor Microsoft's developments closely, as these factors will significantly impact CoreWeave's future performance [23][24]