“炒小、炒新、炒妖”……南向游资套利路径隐现→

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing influence of mainland capital in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly through the southbound trading mechanism, which has led to significant changes in market dynamics and the emergence of new risks associated with speculative trading strategies [3][4][10]. Group 1: Southbound Capital Trends - Southbound capital has accumulated a net buying scale exceeding 5 trillion HKD, with net inflows reaching 85.71 billion HKD on November 24, 2025, bringing the total for the year to over 1.37 trillion HKD [4]. - The proportion of southbound trading in the total market turnover has risen from 15.6% at the beginning of 2024 to 23.6% in the third quarter of 2025, indicating a growing pricing power of mainland funds in the Hong Kong market [4]. - By the end of the third quarter, the total market value of southbound holdings surpassed 6.3 trillion HKD, accounting for approximately 12.7% of the total market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks [4]. Group 2: Market Structure and Trading Behavior - The trading behavior of mainland investors, characterized by a preference for short-term trading and high turnover, raises concerns about potential impacts on the Hong Kong market ecosystem [6]. - Despite the short-term trading tendencies of some investors, the overall structure of southbound capital remains dominated by long-term institutional investors, with insurance funds holding over 1.4 trillion HKD and public funds holding around 1.01 trillion HKD in southbound positions [7][8]. - The correlation between the Hang Seng Index and the CSI 300 has strengthened, with the rolling correlation coefficient increasing throughout 2024, suggesting a rising volatility in the Hong Kong market [8]. Group 3: Speculative Trading Strategies - The article highlights a sophisticated trading strategy employed by mainland speculators, which involves selecting targets, aggressively driving up prices, facilitating inclusion in the southbound trading scheme, and then offloading shares to passive funds [10][15]. - A specific example is provided with the stock "Yaojie Ankang-B," which saw a price increase of over 136% before being included in the southbound trading scheme, followed by extreme volatility post-inclusion [10][15]. - The strategy capitalizes on the inclusion criteria for southbound trading, which requires stocks to meet certain market capitalization thresholds, allowing speculators to manipulate stock prices to ensure inclusion and subsequently benefit from passive fund inflows [14][15].