美股强劲反弹，中国资产爆发，黄金重回4100美元

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the US stock market, highlighting the optimism surrounding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December, which has alleviated concerns about high valuations in the tech sector [3][5]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 202.86 points, or 0.44%, closing at 46,448.27 points, while the Nasdaq increased by 2.69% to 22,872.01 points, and the S&P 500 gained 1.55% to 6,705.12 points [3]. - Major tech stocks saw significant gains, with Tesla up 6.8%, Amazon up 2.5%, Meta up 3.2%, Apple up 1.6%, Nvidia up 2.0%, Oracle up 0.7%, and Microsoft up 0.4% [3]. - Alphabet, Google's parent company, surged 6.3%, nearing a market capitalization of $4 trillion, driven by optimism regarding its position in the AI race and a new contract with NATO for secure cloud services [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - The Dallas Fed's manufacturing index fell from -5.0 in October to -10.4 in November, indicating a widening contraction in factory activity [5]. - Following a recent government shutdown, delayed economic data suggests a weakening labor market, reinforcing investor expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [5]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rose from 71% to 80.9% according to the CME FedWatch Tool [5]. Group 3: Corporate Earnings and Consumer Spending - Nearly 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 83% exceeding expectations, leading to an upward revision of the expected earnings growth rate for Q3 to 14.7% from an earlier forecast of 8.8% [6]. - The upcoming holiday shopping season is anticipated to see sales surpass $1 trillion for the first time, despite concerns over consumer spending amid rising layoffs and weak survey data [7]. Group 4: Commodity Prices - International oil prices have rebounded, with WTI crude oil rising by 1.34% to $58.84 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 1.29% to $63.37 per barrel, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [8]. - Gold prices saw a slight increase, with December COMEX gold futures rising by 0.37% to $4,130.80 per ounce [8].