“十五五”如何布局？黄奇帆、林毅夫、朱民、吴晓求、张军发声

Group 1: Core Perspectives - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of the productive service industry as a key driver for GDP growth and innovation in manufacturing [4] - The international economic landscape is expected to remain weak, with potential risks of an AI bubble burst in the U.S. during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [6] - China aims to enhance its manufacturing quality and transition to a new type of manufacturing that is not only cost-effective but also high-tech [8] Group 2: Economic Strategies - The productive service industry is identified as a crucial element for improving total factor productivity, with a target for its GDP share to rise to 35%-40% by 2040 [4] - Recommendations include adopting more proactive monetary and fiscal policies to tap into China's economic growth potential, estimated at 8% annually until 2035 [6] - The need for restructuring the capital market ecosystem to prioritize investor protection and enhance market transparency is highlighted [10][11] Group 3: Trade and Domestic Demand - The strategy to reduce reliance on exports and increase domestic demand is emphasized, with a goal to bring trade surplus close to zero [13] - Suggestions include lowering market access barriers in service trade and adjusting the exchange rate to support manufacturing upgrades and consumer spending [14] - Increased investment in social welfare sectors like education and healthcare is recommended to support the domestic demand strategy [15]