黑天鹅，突袭！刚刚，大跳水！

Market Overview - The Nikkei 225 index initially rose over 1% but later fell, closing up only 0.07% at 48,659.52 points [2] - SoftBank's stock experienced a significant drop, falling nearly 10% after a previous day's decline of 10.9%, attributed to concerns over increased competition from Alphabet's Gemini AI model against SoftBank's key investment, OpenAI [2][4] Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds surged above 1.8%, with the 30-year yield rising by 0.5 basis points to 3.325% [4] - Concerns about fiscal sustainability are rising due to Japan's increased fiscal stimulus, which may elevate the risk premium on long-term bonds and worsen their liquidity [8][9] Economic Policy and Implications - Japan's government announced a supplementary budget of 21.3 trillion yen, approximately 3% of GDP, marking a significant economic policy under the new administration [8] - While this budget is expected to boost short-term economic growth, it raises concerns about inflation risks in the absence of supportive monetary policy normalization [8] Regional Market Impact - The decline in the Japanese stock market has affected other regional markets, including South Korea, Hong Kong, and A-shares, which saw reduced rebound momentum [6] - Geopolitical tensions are contributing to a triple shock for the Japanese economy, including yen depreciation, rising bond yields, and a projected 60% decrease in Chinese tourist arrivals, potentially dragging GDP down by approximately 0.36% [9]