在浅流动性里寻找真趋势——迈向2026年的多资产思维

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "shallow liquidity," indicating a shift in global dollar liquidity from being extremely ample to merely sufficient, which can lead to significant volatility across various asset classes [4][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - In 2025, there is a notable disparity in asset performance, with silver and gold prices rising significantly, while major stock indices like the S&P 500 are experiencing declines [6]. - The market is currently witnessing a "shallow liquidity market," characterized by a rebound in U.S. and Hong Kong stocks, while funds are shifting from high-growth sectors to defensive sectors [7]. - Analysts suggest that this reflects a cross-asset deleveraging process, where funds are realigning based on price, interest rates, and leverage [8]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding potential interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a reduction while others prefer to maintain current rates [10]. - The uncertainty surrounding short-term interest rate paths is increasing, with market expectations fluctuating rapidly [11]. Group 3: Goldman Sachs Insights - Goldman Sachs' 2026 outlook emphasizes a multi-layered framework for investment, suggesting a shift from a U.S.-centric equity market to a more diversified global approach [13]. - The report highlights the importance of fixed income strategies, advocating for a return to duration management and credit differentiation in response to global inflation and growth disparities [14]. - Private equity and real estate are seen as areas where value creation will be prioritized over mere valuation stories, with a focus on operational improvements and technological enhancements [15]. Group 4: Investment Strategies for China - For Chinese investors, the focus should be on structural resilience amidst complexity, with an emphasis on value stocks and technology-driven consumption [17]. - Gold and precious metals are recommended as long-term assets for risk management, while fixed income investments are viewed as tools for stabilizing returns and hedging against volatility [18]. - The investment narrative is shifting towards building a resilient structure to navigate uncertainties rather than chasing fleeting opportunities [19].