香港楼市，杀回来了

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the Hong Kong property market, after seven years of stagnation, is expected to enter a rising cycle lasting 4 to 5 years; UBS sees the Hong Kong residential property market at a turning point, anticipating a similar upward trend over the next 3 to 5 years [2][9]. Market Recovery - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a resurgence, with significant buyer interest and rapid sales in various projects, such as the Kai Tak project selling 56 units in one day with a subscription rate of 37 times [3][5]. - The private residential price index in Hong Kong rose to 292.5 in September, marking the highest level in 14 months and the fourth consecutive month of increase [6]. - In October, the number of first-hand transactions exceeded 1,700, maintaining over 1,000 transactions for the ninth consecutive month, with luxury properties seeing a notable increase in sales [8]. Factors Behind the Recovery - The Hong Kong government has implemented several policies since early last year, including the elimination of additional stamp duties on residential property transactions, significantly reducing costs for local and mainland buyers [13][17]. - Mortgage rates have decreased, with the one-month HIBOR dropping to around 2.63%, leading to lower mortgage rates compared to earlier in the year [18][21]. - A talent policy has attracted a significant influx of people to Hong Kong, increasing potential homebuyers and driving up rental prices, with the rental index reaching a new high in September [22][24]. - The sustained rise in the Hong Kong stock market and the "asset scarcity" in mainland China have led to increased investment in Hong Kong real estate, with mainland buyers accounting for 24% of total transactions [25][26]. Comparative Analysis - The recovery in the Hong Kong property market differs from the debt crisis seen in mainland cities, as Hong Kong's developers maintain stable balance sheets and low mortgage default rates [29][30]. - The article suggests that while both markets are undergoing adjustments, their paths and underlying issues are distinct, with Hong Kong's market being more resilient due to its unique characteristics [30].