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Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in international oil prices due to the potential easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the resulting oversupply in the oil market, with predictions of further price drops in the coming years [3][4][11]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have been declining, with Brent crude futures around $62 per barrel and U.S. crude futures at approximately $58 per barrel as of November 25 [3]. - The market is experiencing a structural oversupply, shifting from a daily supply shortage of 400,000 barrels to a surplus of 500,000 barrels [8][12]. - Morgan Stanley warns that without intervention, Brent crude could fall to $30-40 per barrel by 2027 due to oversupply [3][11]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - The U.S. has proposed a 28-point plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has led to cautious investor sentiment regarding peace prospects [5]. - If a peace agreement is reached, it could reduce attacks on energy facilities in Ukraine and gradually restore Russian oil supplies [5][6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC's November report indicates a forecasted slight oversupply in the oil market by 2026, contrasting previous predictions of prolonged shortages [6][8]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for U.S. oil production, predicting record output this year and continued growth through 2026 [6][8]. - The EIA projects that global oil and liquid fuel supply will reach 106 million barrels per day by 2025, while consumption will be 104.1 million barrels per day, indicating a supply surplus [8]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that oil prices will remain under pressure, with potential for a rebound in the second quarter of 2026 as supply growth slows and inventory accumulation eases [12]. - The article highlights the challenges OPEC+ faces in coordinating production cuts amid internal disagreements and external pressures from U.S. shale oil production [12]. - The anticipated demand from emerging sectors like artificial intelligence may provide some support for the oil market, requiring significant investment in energy resources [9].