贝恩：人形机器人成本十年内将下降70%

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformative potential of humanoid robots in various sectors, predicting a shift towards a "universal workforce" era driven by advancements in general artificial intelligence [3] - Bain & Company forecasts that by 2035, global annual sales of humanoid robots could reach 6 million units, with a market size exceeding $120 billion, and in optimistic scenarios, sales may surpass 10 million units, reaching $260 billion [3] Investment Landscape - As of November 19 this year, there have been 162 financing events in the humanoid robot sector in China, with total funding exceeding 40 billion RMB, significantly surpassing the total for 2024 [4] - The U.S. and China account for approximately 80% of global financing in humanoid robotics, with about half of that funding coming from China [5] Cost Reduction and Technological Advancements - Key components such as planetary roller screws and six-dimensional force sensors currently account for about 40% of the total cost of humanoid robots [5] - Bain predicts that costs for these components could decrease by 70% to 80% in the coming years, with the overall bill of materials (BOM) cost for humanoid robots expected to drop from $40,000-$50,000 to $10,000-$20,000 by 2035, representing a reduction of 60% to 70% [5] Key Technologies - Other critical technologies include AI chips, battery, and thermal management, which are expected to see significant breakthroughs in 5 to 10 years [6] - The report indicates that advancements in AI chips could lead to self-sufficiency in mid-to-low-end chips within five years, while high-end chips may achieve significant progress within ten years [6] Strategic Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on market size, profitability, technological barriers, cost reduction potential, and cross-industry application prospects, with particular attention to planetary roller screws, tactile sensors, and AI chips as attractive investment areas [6] - Industry participants should define strategic goals, select competitive tracks, and establish differentiated advantages, while potential users of humanoid robots should evaluate value creation and implementation feasibility before adoption [6]