突然,猛烈降息350个基点
中国基金报·2025-11-26 16:06

Group 1 - The Bank of Ghana has cut its key interest rate by 350 basis points to 18%, marking the third consecutive rate reduction amid expectations of continued inflation decline [2][5] - Inflation in Ghana peaked above 54% in December 2022 but has since decreased, returning to the central bank's target range of 6% to 10% by September this year, and further dropping to 8% last month, the lowest in over four years [2][3] - The Ghanaian currency, the cedi, has appreciated approximately 30% against the US dollar this year, aided by rising gold prices and improved fiscal outlook, which has alleviated inflationary pressures [2] Group 2 - The government of Ghana aims to maintain fiscal restraint as it prepares to exit the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program, projecting a primary fiscal surplus of 1.5% of GDP by 2026 and a reduction in the overall fiscal deficit from 2.8% in 2025 to 2.2% in 2026 [3] - Economic growth is expected to be around 4% this year, with a forecast of at least 4.8% by 2026, while inflation is anticipated to remain around 8% by the end of next year [3] Group 3 - The central bank plans to manage market liquidity using 14-day treasury bills, which analysts expect will gradually lower loan interest rates, providing relief to businesses and households facing high borrowing costs [4] - The Bank of Ghana's external account situation has significantly improved, allowing for more flexible policy decisions, and the central bank has indicated a dovish stance, suggesting potential for further rate cuts in the future [5]