Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is rising, with a significant probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, influenced by recent economic reports and market reactions [2][9]. Economic Activity - The latest Beige Book report indicates that overall economic activity in the U.S. has not changed significantly, with consumer spending continuing to decline. Some businesses are warning of increased risks of economic slowdown in the coming months [2][4]. - The report highlights that low-income groups are directly impacted by government shutdowns, leading to increased demand for food assistance programs [4]. Employment Market - The employment market shows slight declines, with about half of the districts noting weakened labor demand. Companies are opting for hiring freezes and natural attrition rather than direct layoffs [5][4]. - Some businesses report that AI is replacing entry-level positions, which is suppressing new hiring needs [5]. Price Pressures - Tariffs remain a major concern for businesses, particularly in manufacturing and retail, with many reporting increased input cost pressures. Some companies have noted that tariffs have tightened profit margins [6][7]. - High-end retail spending remains resilient, while middle and lower-end consumer segments are more adversely affected by the economic conditions [7]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's signals, U.S. stock markets have seen a rise, with major indices experiencing collective gains. Notable increases were observed in large tech stocks [2][9]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to 85%, with expectations for further cuts in January [9]. Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's next meeting is scheduled for December 9-10, where the economic outlook and potential rate cuts will be discussed [4]. - The potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair could lead to a more dovish monetary policy approach, as he has indicated a preference for immediate rate cuts based on current data [10].
凌晨！美联储，重磅发布！
券商中国·2025-11-26 23:36