时报观察丨升值动能不断积累 人民币稳的基础进一步夯实

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar reflects a dual strength pattern, with the yuan showing resilience amid a stable international environment and positive economic indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Chinese economy has demonstrated resilience this year, with exports showing increased strength and a favorable international balance of payments. The total scale of foreign-related receipts and payments reached $11.6 trillion in the first three quarters, a historical high for the same period [2]. - There has been a net inflow of $119.7 billion in cross-border capital, surpassing the level from the previous year, indicating a positive trend in foreign exchange [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Following the meeting between the Chinese and US leaders, the overall relationship between the two countries has stabilized, providing external support for the yuan's strength. Market expectations have remained stable, with entities showing a tendency to convert currency at higher rates [2]. - In the first ten months, banks recorded a surplus of $80.9 billion in foreign exchange transactions, contrasting with a deficit of over $100 billion in the same period last year, which supports the yuan's strong position [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is anticipated to further support the yuan's strength. Additionally, the year-end period is traditionally a peak for currency conversion, which may provide further upward momentum for the yuan [3]. - The Chinese foreign exchange market has shown resilience amid complex international conditions, with rational market expectations and orderly trading. The trend towards a stable or appreciating yuan is widely anticipated in the near future [3].