日股ETF反弹，投行提醒：短期波动可能加剧

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high premium risk associated with Nikkei 225 ETFs in the A-share market, highlighting the ongoing net inflow despite a recent decline in the Nikkei 225 index. It emphasizes the potential short-term economic boost from Japan's new fiscal stimulus plan, while also warning about the risks of inflation detachment and increased volatility in risk assets due to the lack of monetary policy normalization support [1][3][5]. Group 1: High Premium Risk - Four Nikkei 225 ETFs in the A-share market have issued high premium risk warnings, with the E Fund's Nikkei 225 ETF showing a premium of 5.12% as of November 25 [3]. - Other ETFs also reported high premium rates, with the Huashan Mitsubishi Nikkei ETF at 7.31%, and others at 5.78% and 6.21% [3]. - Despite a cumulative net asset value drop of over 8% for these ETFs in November, their total shares increased by 62.5 million, indicating strong investor interest [3]. Group 2: Economic Stimulus and Market Volatility - Japan's government announced a supplementary budget of 21.3 trillion yen, approximately 3% of GDP, which is expected to provide a short-term boost to economic growth [5]. - However, there are concerns that without monetary policy normalization, this fiscal stimulus could exacerbate inflation risks and increase the risk premium in the bond market, leading to heightened volatility in risk assets [5]. - The recent strong performance of the Japanese market may face increased short-term volatility due to geopolitical tensions and influences from the U.S. stock market [5].