波士顿咨询何大勇：产业金融、数字化经营是“十五五”银行业转型两大突破口

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry will face challenges such as declining ROE and intensified Matthew effect during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with significant growth opportunities in corporate business focusing on industrial finance and digital transformation of retail business [3][4]. Corporate Business Focus on Industrial Finance - The banking sector's external environment will present both challenges and opportunities, influenced by trade conflicts, real estate price trends, and advancements in AI infrastructure investment [4]. - Industrial finance is identified as the primary growth area for corporate business, as traditional financial markets and retail banking have reached their peak [4][5]. - The transformation of traditional manufacturing industries will be a major source of growth, with over 50% of the modern industrial system comprising traditional industries that require technological upgrades [5]. - Approximately 30,000 new quality productivity enterprises are becoming key targets for government and capital market funding, covering 300 sectors, which will shape the banking sector's client base for the next decade [5][6]. Retail Business Digital Transformation - Although revenue growth in retail banking is limited, there is significant potential for efficiency improvements through digital transformation [7]. - Retail banking is undergoing three major shifts: from experience-driven to data-driven, from a branch-centric model to a hybrid model incorporating mobile banking, and from branch-led marketing to a combination of top-down and bottom-up management [7][8]. - Leading banks are transforming mobile banking into a marketing and advisory platform, with some banks reporting that mobile banking contributes up to one-third of their AUM growth [7][8]. - The need for a robust digital marketing strategy is emphasized, with significant disparities in automation levels among banks, affecting their marketing effectiveness [8]. Strategic Recommendations - Future reforms should treat mobile banking sections as independent branches, with clear operational metrics and strategies [8]. - The establishment of agile mechanisms within technology departments is crucial for the success of retail digital transformation [8]. - The "ROE defense battle" is highlighted as a pressing challenge for the banking industry over the next five years, with the ability to seize industrial finance opportunities and achieve a qualitative leap in retail digital operations being critical for competitive positioning [8].